If I was in a campaign right now, I would want it to be Hillary's. She has all of the momentum. Now with her plan to subsidize a gas tax holiday on the back of the oil companies she has the inside line on a dominant issue. Obama is vulnerable on the energy front. He voted for the Bush/Cheney energy bill and is close to energy interests in Illinois.
Obama continues to bleed support among white voters. Short of one of her far too common campaign gaffes, Hillary continues to ascent in Indiana and wins going away. Hillary is in a statistical dead-head in Illinois and primary independents have tended to break towards Hillary. The majority of undecideds tend to be women who will break towards Clinton as they have consistently throughout the campaign.
North Carolina is the question. If either candidate is able to sweep both states, they will have delivered a near fatal blow to the other. As much as the Obama campaign tried to spin Pennsylvania as a Clinton fait accompli, North Carolina is the same for Obama.
Obama has two decisive advantages in North Carolina. It has a larger black population (by percent) than either Pennsylvania or Ohio, but notably smaller than other deep south black states. Possibly more decisive is North Carolina's open primary which allows Republicans and Independents to vote in the Democratic primary. Obama has done better in these states.
If John and/or Elizabeth Edwards would endorse Clinton it might push fence sitting upper income, higher education white voters into her camp. Obama is counting on holding to those voters
29.4.08
This time next week
Posted by
DreadOpus
at
5:21 PM
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